Why Bernie Sanders Isn’t Really Losing to Hillary Clinton


The more people learn about Bernie Sanders the more we like him. It is true Hillary Clinton has many more pledged delegates and is likely to be the Democratic Party nominee. But that doesn’t mean she is really beating Bernie. Let me explain.

The only reason Hillary Clinton is ahead in the delegate count has to do with her early victories. And those victories have everything to do with name recognition. In fact, 3/4 of the delegate advantage for Hillary come from primaries/caucauses occurring before March 2nd.

As the race has progressed Sanders has gotten only stronger. He lost more contests to Clinton early on (10 to 6). Through most of March Bernie progressed averaging 50% of the vote versus Hillary’s 48.1, winning 8 states versus 6. Since March 23rd Bernie has averaged 51.4% of the vote versus 46.6 for Clinton. And once against Sanders won more states.

That progress might be tempered by the fact that the entire news media has counted out Bernie Sanders. So we can expect that the vote percentage will be affected adversely for contests to come. Nonetheless, the trend is undeniable–As Sanders became better known his vote total improved accordingly. This phenomenon is furthered explained by the fact that Sanders beat or essentially tied Hillary in the first 2 primaries/causes. Since both candidates spent many months in Iowa and New Hampshire the vote total reflected that fact. The media/press has incorrectly has interpreted the success based on those states being largely white. As the theory goes, Sanders doesn’t appeal to African-Americans unlike Clinton. Some might try to dismiss these stats since later states don’t have as many African-Americans. If that were the case then the average for the second period (>3/1/2016 to <3/23/2016) would favor Hillary much  more than it did. Louisiana, Mississippi, and North Carolina have a large number African-American voters. And those primaries did not help Hillary who ended up losing to Sanders, during that time period, by 2 percentage points.

It would be a terrible mistake to deny Bernie Sanders the nomination based on early primary results that favored Clinton simply because she is better known. Clearly Democrats prefer Bernie Sanders to Hillary Clinton.

Author: 99er

I'm a political activist dedicated to ending two-party rule in America.

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